https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9Zvk70uj5Q

1 00:00:00.000 --\> 00:01:00.000 what's going on everyone i want to
share a quick lesson that i had yesterday with my 18 year old neighbor
uh who's going through his entrepreneurial journey and this is a lot of
fun for me because uh he's at ground zero so i'm hearing you know the
anxieties and the worries and the false beliefs kind of come up as they
go and i get to you know confront them and kind of ask good questions
and so uh kind of the lesson or the theme of yesterday uh was around
volume and luck right and so one of the key differences that i see with
people who are successful and do grow and do scale is that they have a
firm understanding of probability all right and what that means is
chance what's the percentage likelihood that something happens right if
you want to be an investor right then you have to calculate the the risk
associated with an investment that's a probability outcome if you are a
business owner right you have to gamble on marketing and assess the
probability that you'll get a return on that investment right and what's
interesting is that

2 00:01:00.000 --\> 00:02:00.000 volume negates luck all right so if you
can put that in your brain volume negates luck and so luck is a word
that people who don't understand probability use as as a space filler
but if i were to say hey for every uh you know 100 000 emails i send i
get 1 000 back and from 1 000 that i get back i know that i'm going to
close 500 of those people on a deal that's not realistic math i would
probably close a lot more than that but the point is um but if i if i
explain that math to you you probably i'd be like is that luck that i
closed 500 deals you'd probably be like no that's just probability
that's just i know that if i reach this many people the probability that
there is one person who's interested in the in the services that i have
is high right and the thing is is that if you do enough volume you can
negate luck all right you can also negate skill which is a byproduct of
the volume all

3 00:02:00.000 --\> 00:03:00.000 right so let me let me let me dive into
that let me unpack that for a second so let's say you suck right because
you're brand new and of course you would suck because why would you be
good because you've never done this before whatever it is right and so
this is like the conversation i'm having with my neighbor you can
imagine me as like like coaching at 18 year old get him like of course
you suck you're supposed to suck you're not supposed to be good right
and the thing is is like because of social media because of instagram
because of all these things everyone especially you know the guys who
are younger right now and maybe it's the same for guys who are in their
30s whatever is that they just immediately assume they should be a
millionaire the first year right it's just like i should be a
millionaire why am i not a millionaire right and so that's what stops 99
of people from being successful because they're unwilling to suck right
and it hurts their ego too much to be bad and so then they say ah this
isn't for me right and so anyways back to the point of the volume versus
you know negating the luck in the skill component is that let's say the
normal numbers

4 00:03:00.000 --\> 00:04:00.000 let's say i was i was coaching him on
on cold calling right cause that's what he's doing right now and i said
listen it's gonna take you know it should take you about a thousand cold
calls to get you know one deal right and let's say he comes to me and he
says well i've done five thousand right i'm like okay and so i don't
have a deal i'm like and you suck of course you don't have a deal you've
never done this before do another five thousand because the thing is
eventually you will it will be unreasonable for you to suck anymore
right it would be unreasonable for you to not have found one person if
you do this for a straight year and i'm trying to paint this longer
picture for him a year and i know when you're 18 a year sounds like
forever but like a year if you did this for five years if you did
nothing but cold call for five years do you think you would be good at
cold calling he was like yeah probably i was like do you feel like
you're much better now than you were one month ago when you started this
he was like oh i'm like night and day better like i can

5 00:04:00.000 --\> 00:05:00.000 get past you know i can open now i can
have conversation i was getting hung up on i was like right and so you
have this binary measure of progress which is i either closed the sale
or i didn't close the sale when in reality there's tons of bricks on the
bridge on the way to getting the first dollar over right and the first
deal the first dollar independent of whatever you're doing is the always
the hardest one and it's because you have to learn a lot of little
skills before you get the big payoff right and most people learn one
skill or don't learn a skill and then think up this isn't for me right
and so i told him that the only way that i would give him my blessing
for him to quit is if the enti he could convince me that the entire
industry of wholesaling real estate had disappeared if you can convince
me that the entire industry of wholesaling real estate has disappeared
you will have my blessing to quit and obviously that's not going to
happen because people have been making money in whole wholesaling real
estate for a long time right there's always going to be inefficiencies
in marketplaces between buyers and sellers right unless some magical
technology

6 00:05:00.000 --\> 00:06:00.000 comes through which it might in 10
years who knows but for right now it exists and so i said the only thing
that separates you from what you want is skill and the only way to
acquire that skill is volume right and the thing is is when you have
enough skill you get luckier right you don't need to do 10 000 calls to
get that one deal because honestly maybe in the beginning that is that
is that is the biggest lay down person you'll ever have but then it
gives you conviction that it can happen right and so um the more volume
you do the better you get and therefore the luckier you become but the
big picture is that people who invest people who who do business at
larger scale just understand probability right they understand that
there is a percentage now what's what's the the worst thing that can
happen is let's say his this is this is a fun scenario to think about is
let's say his first day he gets on the phone and he somehow closes the
deal right and that one deal may have been that one deal out of 10 000

7 00:06:00.000 --\> 00:07:00.000 that if he had started at the other end
of the call list it might have taken him a month to get there but he
just happens to do it first how much do you think that messes him up a
ton maybe maybe or probably even more than working really hard to get
there and so i don't know about you but i feel like i've definitely had
occasions where i've lucked out and then i start questioning myself what
am i doing different what am i doing different you might not be doing
anything different you might have just hit the hit the gold nugget way
too early in the cycle and now you got to sift through a lot more no's
to get to your next one you might have to sift through twice as many
notes as normal because you gotta you gotta account for the nose from
the first one that you never actually hit right and so anyways as i'm
walking him through this right it just reminded me of how when people
are starting out they don't understand the the concept of large numbers
right if you want to become lucky if you want to have probability on
your side you simply increase n increase the number increase the volume
and eventually you will strike gold and the thing is is that most people
just literally don't go long enough um he honestly was doing the the
little

8 00:07:00.000 --\> 00:08:00.000 system that he's that he's purchased
the wrong way up until like a week ago and so i was like cool well your
first three weeks are wasted that you weren't doing it the right way
right you've now officially been doing this for seven days right do you
feel like it's unreasonable like do you feel like it'd be reasonable for
you to have a top one percent income in the united states after one
month of learning a new skill he was like no and i was like then stop
believing you should i was like if you do this for four years because
he's not right now he's pushing off college to do this i was like if you
do this for four straight years i was like do you think it would be
reasonable that you'd be able to close one deal a month by the end of
that and he was like yeah and i was like cool then you're already twice
as wealthy as the average college person who would be leaving right
except you have four more years of experience than they do and so i'm
trying to like paint these paint just give him a different frame of
seeing success and seeing the work that's required to get there and i
was like what happens if what happens if in six years when you're 24
what happens if in six years 24 and you're not a millionaire yet what
happens that he was like i mean i'd be you know i was

9 00:08:00.000 --\> 00:09:00.000 like what you'd be disappointed you're
not a millionaire at 24. come on man the thing is is he might actually
be right if he actually sticks with it for six straight years but most
people end up hopping and and always doing these half-built bridges
where they they learn two three four of the skills but there's ten that
they have to learn and they say this isn't for me and they jump to
another one they start building a new bridge right when the reality is
you just have to keep laying the bricks keep playing the bricks keep
laying the bricks all the way across the bridge from where you are to
where you want to be and then the first dollar walks across and it takes
a lot of time to put those bricks in place and to figure out which brick
you're missing and the only way to do it is more and that is how you'll
get better at the skill that gets the dollar across the bridge so
anyways more more more sagas of my 18 year old workout afternoon uh
lessons i hope you enjoy this uh if you do you know subscribe like
comment all that kind of good stuff uh and i'll see you in the next
video
